Exposing a Hoax: New unemployment claims in Louisiana, April 5 to September 3

Opponents of the Obama administration's moratorium on deep water drilling have bemoaned the economic impact of the pause on employment in Louisiana. In June, Governor Bobby Jindal ordered that an amicus brief be filed in the lawsuit against the moratorium. In that brief, the governor's attorneys claimed that thousands of jobs had been lost to the moratorium at that point (less than a month after it was imposed) and that thousands of jobs were threatened by allowing the moratorium to stand.

The feared job losses have not come. And, Louisiana Workforce Commission (LWC) weekly reports show that Jindal's brief was wrong about the thousands of jobs that the governor's attorneys claimed had already been lost due to the moratorium by late June. Did the Governor and his attorneys not know what LWC's weekly reports were showing? Or, was this like his berms project, where (in that case the scientific) evidence was willfully ignored?

On page 4 of the state's 17-page brief, Jindal's attorneys declared:

The Louisiana Workforce Commission (LWC) administers Louisiana's unemployment compensation system, its workers' compensation program and its workforce programs, including job training and work search services. Because of the moratorium, many thousands of Louisiana workers have lost their employment and many more are at risk of losing it in the near future. All of the programs administered by LWC have been and will be heavily impacted by its effects. (Emphasis added)

Every Friday, the LWC issues a news release containing the number of new unemployment filings and puts the number in context: LWC compares that week's number to the previous week; compares the number to the same week of the previous year; provides a four-week moving average; and provides a total number of active unemployment claims in the state and compares that number to the previous year, and a four-week moving average for total claims.

Nowhere in the LWC weekly reports issued between the Department of the Interior's declaration of the moratorium (May 27) and the June 20 court filing by Jindal's attorneys is there any mention of any impact on new unemployment claims filings related to the moratorium. Other issues are mentioned at times, like seasonally increased claims resulting from the end of the school year or a transportation equipment disruption which led to a one-week spike. But, the moratorium is not mentioned in that period of time.

Nor has it been mentioned in any of the LWC weekly reports issued since the Jindal court filing.

In fact, based on the numbers generated by the LWC — not the rhetoric coming from Jindal, top LWC management, and other opponents of the moratorium — the deep water drilling moratorium has been a non-event in terms of Louisiana employment.

Follow the Numbers

What follows is a listing of the numbers in each weekly report issued by LWC, starting on April 5 and running through September 3. This provides information on new unemployment claims in the weeks leading up to the Deepwater Horizon explosion, through the May 28th imposition of the moratorium, through the dates of the court hearings, through the Rally for Economic Survival, up to the most current report issued by LWC.

A link to each announcement is included. The image at the top of this page charts the numbers for new claims and the moving average.

The weekly reports make clear that there has been no surge of job losses attributable to the moratorium. In fact, while other causes for new unemployment claims are mentioned in some reports, the LWC reports are notable for what they do not mention — the deep water drilling moratorium.

It also needs to be noted that since July 2, the number of people collecting unemployment benefits in Louisiana in 2010 has been lower than the number of people collecting benefits in 2009.

If the deep water drilling moratorium was causing unemployment in Louisiana, these are where the numbers would first appear.

LWC April 5 report: New claims — 4,120; four-week average — 3,988 (This report was filed on the Monday after Easter based on numbers from the previous week).

LWC April 9 report: New claims — 3,689; four-week average — 3,908.

LWC April 16 report: New claims — 4,661; four-week average — 4,067.

LWC April 23 report: New claims — 3,989; four-week average — 4,115.

LWC April 30 report: New claims — 4,982; four-week average — 4,330.

LWC May 7 report: New claims — 4,574; four-week average — 4,552.

LWC May 14 report: New claims — 4,480; four-week average — 4,506.

LWC May 21 report: New claims — 4,584; four-week average — 4,655.

LWC May 28 report: New claims — 4,645; four-week average — 4,571.

LWC June 4 report: New claims — 5,166; four-week average — 4,719. (LWC: "The largest over-the-week increases in initial claims were in educational services and health care and social assistance industries as part of the usual summer seasonal pattern.")

LWC June 11 report: New claims — 5,188; four-week average — 4,896. (LWC: "The largest over-the-week increase in initial claims was in the health care and social assistance industry as part of the usual summer seasonal pattern.")

LWC June 18 report: New claims — 4,902; four-week average — 4,975.

LWC June 25 report: New claims — 4,450; four-week average — 4,927.

LWC July 2 report: New claims — 4,456; four-week average — 4,749.

LWC July 9 report: New claims — 4,750; four-week average — 4,640.

LWC July 16 report: New claims — 4,533; four-week average — 4,547.

LWC July 23 report: New claims —5,237; four-week average — 4,744. (LWC: "The largest over-the-week increase in initial claims was due to a temporary shutdown in the transportation equipment industry.")

LWC July 30 report: New claims — 4,395; four-week average — 4,729. (LWC: "The largest over-the-week decrease in initial claims was in the transportation equipment industry.")

LWC August 6 report:  New claims — 4,109; four-week average — 4,569.

LWC August 13 report: New claims — 4,305; four-week average — 4,512.

LWC August 20 report: New claims — 3,987; four-week average — 4,199.

LWC August 27 report: New claims — 4,149; four-week average — 4,138.

LWC September 3 report: New claims — 4,120; four-week average — 4,140.

While the LWC leadership is an active participant in the politically driven, anti-moratorium hysteria, the numbers the commission produces on a weekly basis tell a starkly different story. The numbers don't have a dog in this fight. They are just the numbers; they don't have a political agenda.

The LWC numbers are saying that the impact of the moratorium has been negligible.

Why the Job Loss Claim Matters 

Judge Martin Feldman, who ruled on the request for the injunction two days after Jindal's attorneys filed their brief, signaled in his decision that the economic impact of the moratorium weighed heavily in his ruling.

The effect on employment, jobs, loss of domestic energy supplies caused by the moratorium as the plaintiffs (and other suppliers,  and the rigs themselves) lose business, and the movement of rigs to other sites around the world will clearly ripple throughout the economy in this region. (Page 22 of Feldman's ruling PDF).

 The Times-Picayune, which has steadfastly opposed the moratorium, cited the role of the economic impact of the moratorium on the development of Judge Feldman's ruling.

But, what if the job losses were imaginary, or worse, part of a hoax?

There can be no doubt that a total shutdown of deep water drilling would have a significant economic impact on Louisiana. But, that is not what has been proposed, despite the fact that this is precisely how some opponents of the moratorium have tried to frame the issue. What has been proposed is tighter safety, environmental and liability regulation on an industry that has called the shots in the Gulf of Mexico for several decades. The moratorium was used to allow new rules to be set and to determine what had gone wrong on the Deepwater Horizon.

The suit against the moratorium, though, was not brought by the companies that own the leases and are responsible for the drilling activity in the Gulf. That would be the big oil companies.

Instead, the suit was brought by essentially three groups of service companies who have bet their respective banks on deep water drilling. Those are Hornbeck Offshore Services, and companies controlled by the Bollinger and Chouest families.

These companies and those families have gotten rich helping the energy companies exploit the Gulf and Louisiana's offshore waters. In their view, no ecological or environmental cost has ever been too high a price to pay to enable them to continue their work.

Not even the largest oil spill in U.S. history.

What is equally tragic is that most of Louisiana's political class feels exactly the same way about the price the state pays for the few thousand jobs, the pittance of oil revenue (compared to, say, third world countries), and political contributions through which the industry controls the state.

The Jindal Tragedy

No politician exemplifies this craven attitude more so than Bobby Jindal. Confronted with the ruin of Louisiana's seafood industry, Jindal sided with the Bollingers, the Chouests, the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association and others in the 'no price is too high' crowd.

There was a moment after the Deepwater Horizon explosion where Jindal nearly appeared to appreciate the importance of Louisiana's coast. It proved fleeting. When he began prattling publicly for permits to build berms, it was nearly over. Any and all thoughts that Jindal cared about Louisiana's environment (other than as a backdrop for press conferences) were obliterated on June 20 when his attorneys added his voice to those of his patrons' voices in challenging the moratorium. Jindal was back 'home.'

The irony is that this so-called reformed governor is more deeply committed to protecting the interests that have dominated this state for decades than any governor in modern history, including Edwin Edwards. Edwards first came to office in the 1970s while oil and gas were still booming and jobs in the industry were plentiful.

Jindal is governor at a time when the industry has pulled its best jobs out of the state, leaving a few thousand drilling jobs. The refineries are still here. Today, the oil and gas industry in Louisiana has the distinct look and feel of a colonial power. A few tokens are thrown to the locals in the form of jobs and money for politicians, but the wealth is shipped out of state.

President Obama recognized that the interests of Louisiana and the interests of the industry are separate and distinct. He chose the interests of the state in allowing the Department of the Interior to proceed with the moratorium.

Jindal, who dreams of replacing Obama in the White House one day, either does not grasp that divergence, or he does get it but does not have the courage to act on that knowledge. Either way, it's a pretty damning assessment of the governor who is supposed to be the smartest guy in the room.

HOAX!: Moratorium job loss projections deceived a Judge and the Public

Three months into the the U.S. Department of the Interior's moratorium on deep water drilling and it is abundantly clear that the doom and gloom prophesied by opponents of the moratorium have not materialized.

The Louisiana Workforce Commission's (LWC) latest report shows record employment in the state in July, with falling unemployment in every metro market, including the Houma and Lafayette markets — the areas that opponents of the moratorium said would be devastated by the pause in deep water drilling.

The Louisiana Oil and Gas Association (LOGA) shows drilling rig activity holding steady in the range of about 185 rigs.

The Lafayette Economic Development Authority (LEDA) web site offers users the opportunity to examine drilling rig counts over time. In April of this year, LEDA's site shows that there were 75 more drilling rigs active in Louisiana than there were in the same month last year (April is the most recent month available in the LEDA site).

Even the Associate Executive Director for the LSU Center for Energy Studies (LSU CES), David Dismukes, has had to climb down from his predictions of gloom and doom and admit that the job losses the center predicted have not materialized.

Interestingly, all of the above parties were players in the drum beat leading up to the Rally for Economic Survival that opponents of the moratorium organized in Lafayette in July. LOGA was the prime organizer of the event. Presentations by the Louisiana Workforce Commission (PDF) and the LSU Center for Energy Studies (PDF) drove home the supposed dire consequences of the moratorium.

But, at the same time the Louisiana Workforce Commission study was being bandied about on stage in Lafayette, the weekly employment updates from the Commission were reporting falling numbers of new unemployment claims. This trend has continued all summer.

The LWC presentation at the rally was propaganda, pure and simple.

In the three months since it was declared, it has become clear that the moratorium has not had anything remotely near the devastating impact predicted by the oil and gas industry, its apologists and paid hangers on. It has also become clear that the LWC and the LSU CES played key roles in what amounts to a hoax that has been perpetrated against a federal court and the public regarding the moratorium on deep water drilling and its impact.

How do we know this? Steady drilling rig counts. Record employment. Low claims for new unemployment. And court documents.

Confecting A Hoax

To most outside observers, the worst oil spill in U.S. history justified a pause in deep water drilling activity until the causes of the disaster could be determined and new rules promulgated to govern the industry going forward. This is precisely the intent behind the deep water drilling moratorium issued by the Department of the Interior Secretary Ken Salazar on May 28.

What Salazar and the Obama administration did not immediately appreciate is that the moratorium threatened the web of offshore service companies in Lafourche and Terrebonne parishes. Those companies, especially those headed by Gary Chouest and Donald Bollinger, have become the financial muscle behind the rise of the Republican Party in Louisiana.

In fact, when Hornbeck Offshore filed suit against the moratorium, they were joined by 37 companies controlled by Chouest (16) and Bollinger (21). The fight against the moratorium in Louisiana was political from day one. The Office of the Governor filed an amicus brief on June 20 with the court in support of Hornbeck, Chouest and Bollinger. Bobby Jindal has been the beneficiary of the political largess of Chouest and Bollinger and has displayed a certain extravagant gratitude using public dollars — particularly to Chouest.

The anti-moratorium hoax appeared fully formed in the Jindal administration's amicus brief (PDF) on the case. In that filing, the state-endorsed purveyors of gloom and doom for the anti-moratorium forces were in place — the LSU CES and the LWC.

The state's brief points first to LSU CES as the source of its concerns about job losses. In the brief, the State of Louisiana, citing the center, claimed:

The impact of the moratorium is neither speculative nor remote. According to the LSU Center for Energy Studies, within only five months the moratorium will result in the direct layoff of 3,339 Louisiana workers and the loss of an additional 7,656 jobs indirectly in the State. (page 3)

The brief then puts the Louisiana Workforce Commission to work on behalf of the anti-moratorium effort.

The Louisiana Workforce Commission (LWC) administers Louisiana's unemployment compensation system, its workers' compensation program and its workforce programs, including job training and work search services. Because of the moratorium, many thousands of Louisiana workers have lost their employment and many more are at risk of losing it in the near future. All of the programs administered by LWC have been and will be heavily impacted by its effects. (Emphasis added)

There's only one problem with these claims. They are false.

According to a news release issued by the LWC on June 18, new unemployment claims were falling not rising, as would have been the case if the moratorium were having the impact declared in the state's court filing. Here's the lead paragraph of that release:

Initial claims for unemployment insurance (UI) for the week ending June 12, 2010, decreased to 4,902 from the previous week’s total of 5,188. Initial claims were below the comparable week ending June 13, 2009, figure of 5,139.

The LWC release from the following week also contradicted the assertions in the state's court filing:

Initial claims for unemployment insurance (UI) for the week ending June 19, 2010, decreased to 4,450 from the previous week’s total of 4,902. Initial claims were below the comparable week ending June 20, 2009, figure of 6,113.

The four-week moving average of initial claims decreased to 4,927 from the previous week’s average of 4,975.

So, the state — through the Office of the Governor as represented by the State Attorney General — was making claims in federal court that it should have known were false.

Those false claims served as a significant reason that Judge Martin Feldman ruled against the moratorium:

The effect on employment, jobs, loss of domestic energy supplies caused by the moratorium as the plaintiffs (and other suppliers,  and the rigs themselves) lose business, and the movement of rigs to other sites around the world will clearly ripple throughout the economy in this region. (Page 22 of the ruling PDF.)

The argument that played so well with Judge Feldman would prove equally effective when it went public in support of the anti-moratorium rally in Lafayette.

Creature Comforts

The LSU Center for Energy Studies (LSU CES) is, to put it mildly, a creature of the oil and gas industry. The Center's has an Advisory Council that "provides research direction and guidance and frequently assists the Center in securing finances." The phrase 'bought and paid for' comes to mind.

The Advisory Council is comprised of a who's who of Louisiana energy company executives, including officers from the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association and the Louisiana Mid Continent Oil and Gas Association, the Louisiana Chemical Association, the Louisiana Association of Business and Industry, and interim Lt. Governor Scott Angelle.

Would it be a stretch to imagine that someone on the Advisory Council suggested that the Center take the lead on producing the worst case scenarios that would serve as the basis for the anti-moratorium fight in Louisiana? Would it then be advantageous for the various members of the Advisory Council to begin parroting those 'findings' through their various communications channels to their members and the media?

That certainly appears to be what took place.

The moratorium was issued on May 28. Statistics from LSU CES were cited in the state's court filings on June 20. Those figures became a staple of the anti-moratorium propaganda thereafter.

Political Workforce

The Louisiana Workforce Commission offers a stark example of how the Jindal administration has politicized the upper level management of some state agencies. The proof is in the data that continues to flow from the LWC and how that data has regularly contradicted the claims being made publicly by the LWC's leadership as part of the heavily orchestrated political opposition to the deep water drilling moratorium.

The clearest public display of how Jindal has politicized the LWC can be found on slide two of the commission's presentation used at the Rally for Economic Survival. That slide ("Industries Directly Impacted by Moratorium") includes the questionable use of two employment categories — "Chemical and petroleum merchant wholesalers: includes bulk stations and terminals" and "Gasoline stations."

An argument could be made that there might be some slowdown in business at bulk stations and terminals if, say, the oil and gas industry was completely shut down (which is clearly not the case). But, under what set of circumstances could the moratorium possibly affect people working at gasoline stations?

The only reason these two categories were included in the presentation were to enable moratorium opponents to inflate the size and importance of the oil and gas industry in Louisiana. Including the gasoline station workers (does that include cashiers at, say, Exxon, Shell, Chevron, Valero stations?) ads 18,000 workers to the rolls of the 'potentially' affected.

This distortion was essential to the creation of a climate of fear needed to, at the very least, get 11,000 people to turn out for a political rally against the moratorium.

Follow the Money

The first threat of layoffs resulting from the moratorium was made by Edison Chouest Offshore at Port Fourchon on June 4. The first rally against the moratorium that Jindal attended took place in an Edison Chouest facility at Port Fourchon on June 10. The second event took place at the Gulf Island Fabricators facility in Houma on June 24. Gulf Island Fabricators just happens to be the company building Chouest's LaShip facility that Jindal has supported with state funds.

Jindal was the featured speaker at the Rally for Economic Survival. That was no accident considering the role he and his office have played in orchestrating the politically driven response to the moratorium.

Gary Chouest, though, has maintained an active role in the campaign through the dispersing of campaign contributions to Republican members of Louisiana's congressional delegation.

Contributions from individuals associated with Edison Chouest Offshore are make that firm the largest single contributor to Sixth District Congressman Bill Cassidy, according to the campaign finance website OpenSecrets. Cassidy of Baton Rouge called the deep water drilling moratorium, "a jobs moratorium."

Chouest Offshore-related contributions to An "Joseph" Cao rank that firm at the top of the freshman Republican's contribution list.

Chouest Offshore-related contributions ranked second among all contributors to Senator David Vitter's current campaign, again according to OpenSecrets.

The Chouest/Vitter connection should not be a surprise considering the fact that Chouest pumped $100,000 in to the Vitter-founded Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority in 2006.

Other than Jindal, no Louisiana politician has benefited more from the anti-moratorium furor than Vitter. It provided him a forum to discuss something other than his own sordid past and/or those of his staffers. In leading the fight against the moratorium at the federal level, Vitter spared no effort to ramp up the potential damage (Cassidy cites Vitter as the source for the claim of 150,000 families affected by the moratorium while Vitter cited Cassidy in radio spots.) nor to demonize President Obama.

Donald Bollinger has also been active on the campaign contributions front, but less so than Chouest.

The Fig Leaf

Interim Lt. Governor Scott Angelle has provided cover for the deeply partisan nature of the anti-moratorium effort. Angelle is a Democrat by party registration but, like Jindal, is most interested in pursuing his own ambition.

Angelle was appointed secretary of the Department of Natural Resources by Governor Kathleen Blanco in 2004 and was reappointed by Jindal in 2008. In addition to heading that department, Angelle has acted as a legislative liaison for Jindal in each session of the Legislature. He's also raised money for Jindal, having arranged an over night hunt for thus far unnamed donors earlier this year at a hunting lodge owned by a prominent Louisiana Democrat.

Because this is not an election year, the identity of Angelle's guests at the hunt will not be known until Jindal's campaign files it annual report on this year's activities after the first of the year. Angelle was still DNR secretary at the time. If the campaign party included members of the industries supposedly regulated by DNR, it will raise ethical flags. Of course, the Ethics Governor™ has so screwed up the state's ethics code when it comes to campaign finance, it is unlikely that anything could happen to Angelle even if it were proven that he took Tony Hayward with him out into the marshes of Cameron Parish.

Angelle's stint at DNR earned him some good friends in the oil and gas industry. Some of that friendship was the product of the St. Martin Parish native's winning personality. Some of it might have been related to the haphazard way his department tracked royalty payments the industry owed the state.

Nonetheless, Angelle has been an effective public face on the anti-moratorium farce. He has attack and mocked President Obama at every turn. He wowed the crowd at the anti-moratorium rally in Lafayette with a stump speech he'd been perfecting for at least a month before that event. He also led the effort to get thousands of people to sign a petition calling for the end of the moratorium.

All of that effort was made possible by the fear generated by the claims of the damage that the moratorium would inflict on Louisiana — none of which has come true.

The Circular Citing Squad

Angelle inadvertently revealed the self-fulfilling nature of the gloom and doomers when he testified on August 17 before a meeting of the U.S. Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship conducted by Senator Mary Landrieu. At that meeting in Lafayette, in prepared remarks Angelle cited numerous anecdotes from businesses about the supposed impact of the moratorium.

He cited a litany of businesses reporting sales being down in anticipation of the impact of the moratorium. Since the moratorium has had little or no economic impact in terms of jobs or drilling activity, Angelle was really testifying about the effectiveness of the hoax that he, Jindal and the industry have inflicted on the people of south Louisiana.

None of their predictions have come true. Yet, that has not stopped the grandstanding and political opportunism, nor the spreading of their particular brand of fear.

Consider this fact. The disgraced financier Alan Stanford allegedly scammed $8 billion from people through a Ponzi scheme involving IRAs. An estimated $2 billion of those losses came out of Louisiana, primarily in Lafayette and Baton Rouge. Those losses became known last year. The impact is hitting home this year.

The Stanford scam is hitting Louisiana harder than the moratorium. Yet, there is no Republican political gain to be scored by going after a criminal whose activity took place under the noses of the Bush/Cheney edition of the asleep at the switch Securities Exchange Commission.

The politics of fear is something about which Republicans are well-versed on the national level. The anti-moratorium hoax is a clear display of its power in state politics. As the deception becomes apparent, will those who perpetrated this hoax — Jindal, LOGA, Angelle and their allies — pay a price for it?

Louisiana faces some very tough choices. As the impact of the moratorium proves minimal, will the leaders who ran that fear campaign have the reservoirs of credibility to lead us through these challenges? Or, will they resort to gimmickry, trickery and deception — as  they have done with the moratorium — to accomplish political objectives that leave us diminished as a state?

The Rally That Cried Wolf!

Another week into the moratorium on deep water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and another week of mounting evidence that the opponents of the moratorium who predicted it would crush Louisiana's economy are guilty of crying wolf.

The Louisiana Oil and Gas Association (LOGA) website on Saturday that the rig count in Louisiana was 183 rigs. That's down three from the previous week, and one less rig that was operating in Louisiana two weeks ago.

The Louisiana Workforce Commission announced on Friday that new unemployment claims in Louisiana had fallen yet again.

In fact, the LWC said in its statement that unemployment claims in Louisiana have been trending downward all summer:

In July all regular unemployment insurance claimants who have received at least one check during the reference month in Louisiana decreased by 993 from 49,421 in June 2010 to 48,428 in July 2010.

The Times-Picayune reported on Friday that there has not, in fact, been an exodus of deep water drilling companies from the Gulf of Mexico, despite the moratorium:

Despite uncertainty about when the federal moratorium on deepwater oil exploration in the Gulf of Mexico may be lifted, drilling companies say they are readying to return to work, maintaining their full complement of rig workers at full pay and making improvements in their rigs to meet new federal safety standards required by the Interior Department.

Rig counts steady. Unemployment falling. Drilling companies say they are keeping people on staff and working to meet the new safety regulations.

All more evidence that "The End is Near" rally was propaganda event perpetrated by the Governor and his allies in the oil and gas industry on the people of this state. Or, in other words, just another day at the office for Bobby Jindal.

Yeah, the Frickin' Moratorium is Killin' Us — NOT!

The "End Is Near Rally" in Lafayette a week ago was a veritable doom and gloom fest, complete with charts and predictions from economists that the Obama administration's moratorium on deep water drilling means the end of Louisiana, economically speaking.

The moratorium was declared in late May and has been slugged out in the courts since then, but it has been in effect now for two months. The impact of the forced shutdown of 28 deep water drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico should be reverberating through Louisiana's economy by now.

The End should be at our door, kicking and beating to get in.

Well, a funny thing has happened on the road to Armageddon — nothing.

The latest numbers released this week from various sources show that Louisiana's oil and gas industry is doing quite well, thank you, and the overall employment in the state is improving. Hell, even businesses along the coast supposedly headed for extinction are doing pretty well.

Two months into "The End of the World", the drilling rig count in Louisiana this past week is up three from the week before, to 187. That figure can be found here. It is worth noting that the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association was the prime mover behind the "End is Near Rally" in Lafayette. The videos are still on their website and will stay there, I'm quite certain, until after the fall elections, which is what this propaganda campaign is all about.

Then, the Louisiana Workforce Commission (which at the Rally, included gasoline station workers on its list of industries directly affected by the moratorium) on Friday released its latest unemployment claims numbers. Lo and behold, new claims for unemployment in Louisiana fell last week, two months into the moratorium.

Drilling activity up. New unemployment claims down.

If the moratorium is not, in fact, killing Louisiana, what does that say of the claims made by LOGA, Governor Jindal, Scott Angelle, and others at the rally about the dire consequences resulting from this attempt to prevent further destruction of Louisiana's wetlands and the Gulf of Mexico?

The event was orchestrated. The numbers were massaged. The media's attention was grabbed. And people who trusted these people were scared witless.

All in a days work for political operatives seeking to divert attention from the ecological, cultural and economic damage caused by an industry is still trying to hide the true nature of their operations here from the people they've grown accustomed to abusing.

But, the slow train of the truth is catching up to them. The attempt to convince the people of this state that the perpetrators of the crime in the Gulf are somehow the victims is failing. The industry and their front men are being exposed as the charlatans that they are.

Fear-Fanned Loathing In Lafayette

Wednesday, July 21, 2010, will go down as the high-water mark of in-state efforts to end the Gulf of Mexico deep water drilling moratorium imposed by the Obama administration in the wake of the Deepwater Horizon explosion and subsequent blowout.

About 11,000 people turned out at the Lafayette Cajundome for the "Rally for Economic Survival." Getting that many people to turnout for anything other than a sporting event in Louisiana takes some doing. But, the 'doing' that got them there reveals that opponents of the moratorium are engaged in blatant and obvious fear mongering, and have frittered away what little credibility they had on the issue with the lies and distortions included in statements made leading up to and during the event.

Make no mistake about it, what happened in Lafayette on Wednesday was an anti-Obama political rally organized by the oil and gas industry and fronted by Governor Bobby Jindal and his hand-picked interim Lieutenant Governor, Scott Angelle. Angelle was among friends, having run the Department of Natural Resources until Jindal elevated him this spring. Republican Lieutenant Governor candidate Sammy Kershaw provided entertainment (not sure if he just sang or if he read from his federal tax liens, too).

There was steady buildup leading up to the event. In Lafayette, the Greater Lafayette Chamber of Commerce lead the drive to build attendance. Ultimately, all of Lafayette's mainstream media fell in line, becoming virtual (if not outright) partners in the promotion of the event. The Daily Advertiser ran a front page editorial calling for an end of the moratorium on the day of the event. ABC affiliate KATC's station manager delivered an on-air editorial calling for an end to the moratorium. Radio stations did live remotes from the event.

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

This buildup was based, in fact, on a carefully orchestrated distortion of what the moratorium is, then building a statistical house of cards atop those distortions. The Louisiana Oil and Gas Association (LOGA), and its president Don Briggs, were prime movers in the effort to ramp up the climate of economic crisis that helped produce the turnout in Lafayette. Briggs is a long-time player in the Lafayette business community, serving on the board of the Lafayette Chamber. LOGA and Briggs have long-standing ties with the Lafayette Economic Development Authority (LEDA) and the LSU Center for Energy Studies, both of which produced economic reports painting horrific stories of the potential impact of a six-month moratorium.

The advisory council for the LSU Center for Energy Studies gives the distinct impression that this is an advocacy group hiding inside academia. This must be where the industry gathers when Lafayette's Petroleum Club is booked. It is not surprising that the rally included a presentation from the Center and the picture painted was bleak.

Do you think they would have been allowed to make a presentation that said anything different? No. Only the finest store-bought statistics were allowed at this privately-funded propaganda event.

The premise of all the pre-event propaganda and the presentations made during the rally is that the Obama administration has shutdown all drilling in the Gulf of Mexico — not just deep water drilling — and that the moratorium will become permanent.  This might be good short-term politics, but it is not supported by the facts.

And while companies like Diamond Drilling have made a big show about moving two rigs out of the Gulf of Mexico to other drilling locales, the fact is that decisions on when and where to drill in permitted waters are made by the big oil companies — not by the drilling companies, not by the service companies, and not by lobbying groups.

What are the big oil companies thinking? They plan to resume drilling in the Gulf of Mexico once the moratorium is over and new rules are promulgated. That announcement was made on the same day as the rally, but strangely did not get much press coverage in south Louisiana.

Governor Bobby Jindal has been milking the BP Gulf Gusher for all the political gain he can get from it, having spent almost three months on the coast chasing down cameras and microphones for opportunities to criticize the federal response to the industry-caused disaster. With a presentation made at the rally, Jindal has apparently put the Louisiana Workforce Commission to work in advancing his political agenda.

The thrust of all of this is that economic ruin will result from the moratorium. To paint this picture, the impact of the oil and gas industry must be inflated and the discrete segments within the industry must be ignored.

Enter the Louisiana Workforce Commission. In a presentation on the rally website (see graphic), the commission includes people who work at "Gasoline Stations" to ramp up the employment numbers of the industry in the state. According to the June employment report issued by the LWC, this adds 18,600 workers to the "industry" payrolls. That means convenience store cashiers and clerks are considered part of the energy industry.

It is also worth noting that, according to the LCW's official job statistics for June (page 8 in the PDF), those 18,600 gasoline station workers out number all of the people engaged in oil and gas drilling and extraction in Louisiana. That is no quirk due to the moratorium. This has been the case in every report this year.

Are gasoline station workers affected by the moratorium? No. But, it heightens the purported importance of the industry of the state's economy and, thus, fits nicely within propaganda objectives of the conference organizers.

Off The Deep End

People say things in unscripted moments that they later sometimes regret. So, in an attempt to provide opponents of the moratorium the kind of fairness they will not provide supporters of the moratorium, this segment will focus on the prepared written statements by Rally organizers which The Daily Advertiser published on the morning of the event.

Reading these, it becomes clear that truth was among the first casualties in the ramp up for the rally.  These otherwise staid community and business leaders have been scared witless by what they have been told about the economic impact of the deep water drilling moratorium. They are spouting gibberish based on lies they've been sold.

The statement by Don Briggs is a clear example of how the facts are conflated and mixed to create a potential outcome that has no basis in reality. Here are the first two paragraphs:

Louisiana's oil and gas industry has a more than $70 billion annual impact. The industry supports more than 15 percent of household income in the state — $12.7 billion annually.

The continuing moratorium on offshore drilling affects many more people than the 320,000 working jobs in Louisiana supported by the oil and gas industry. As a result, it also affects far more than the 58,000 Louisianans working in extraction, refining and pipeline jobs.

Reading the first paragraph, one is left with the inescapable conclusion that the deep water drilling moratorium is going to wipe out the oil and gas industry in Louisiana. Someone apparently forgot to tell the industry. According to a chart on LOGA's website, there were 184 active drilling rigs in Louisiana last week. This is almost two months into the moratorium. Baker Hughes, Inc., which provides its own count, said there was more drilling activity in Louisiana last week than there was a month ago.

If anyone knows this, it is Mr. Briggs. After all, it is his job and that of his organization to know the Louisiana oil and gas industry. Drilling activity has surged in the Haynesville Trend area of northwest Louisiana. Yet, Mr. Briggs insists on pretending that the deep water drilling moratorium threatens the entire industry in the state.

This fundamental dishonesty undermines legitimate concerns about the economic impact of the moratorium. Yet, this failure to be content with the facts is rampant in the public statements and presentations given in support of the rally and against the moratorium.

Then there is the matter of the jobs. Briggs' second paragraph would lead one to believe that the moratorium on deep water drilling threatens to wipe out, at the very least, all of the jobs related to "extraction, refining and pipeline" work. The Louisiana Workforce Commission's Monthly Employment Bulletin does not break out jobs according to the categories Briggs uses, meaning there is no ready way to verify his numbers other than, you guessed it, relying on the estimates of industry groups like LOGA— a sponsor of the rally and among the leading industry opponents of the moratorium.

Another moratorium opponent given space in The Daily Advertiser is Ovide N. Mercure Jr., Controller of Frederick's Machine and Tool.

Mr. Mercure writes:

Our accidents are tragic and our mistakes are costly, so we work hard to ensure they don't happen. The industry is one of the most heavily regulated in existence. Penalizing an entire industry for the failures of a single company will be catastrophic for your families and neighbors.

Actually, the deep water drilling industry was among the least regulated deep water areas of operation in the world. Operating under rules made during the Bush/Cheney years, the industry wrote their own rules in the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, many of the safety rules the industry said it did not need to use in the Gulf of Mexico are safety rules they are required to meet in deep water drilling operations in the North Sea and other locales.

We heard two things repeatedly throughout the 85 days that the well gushed uncontrollably into the Gulf: 1) the best minds in the industry were helping BP try to deal with the blowout; and, 2) the various approaches used to try to cap the well had been used successfully in shallow waters but "never before at this depth."

Rob Guidry, President and CEO of the Greater Lafayette Chamber of Commerce, claims the win, though, for most outlandish statement when he wrote in The Daily Advertiser, the following:

President Barack Obama has placed economic sanctions on Louisiana, and eventually the United States, beyond those imposed on Iran!

Obama's moratorium on oil and gas drilling is already negatively impacting the jobs of our families and friends. Tens of thousands more jobs will be lost on a daily basis as the irrational moratorium continues.

A temporary moratorium on deep water drilling is worse than U.S. sanctions on Iran? Proof please! Have assets been frozen? Have accounts been seized? Have companies been banned from doing business in Louisiana?

Mr. Guidry is a good man, but he's got a head full of bad information.

Some of those ideas might be coming from Mr. Briggs who sits on the Lafayette Chamber's Board of Directors. Or they might have come from David H. Welch, the President and CEO of Stone Energy, and chairman of the Chamber's Board of Directors. According to Forbes magazine, Mr. Welch is a man with deep ties to deep water drilling, BP. He's also got extensive ties with the energy industry as a whole, serving as a director of the National Ocean Industries Association. It's just a simple twist of fate that this year the Lafayette Chamber would be headed by a man with such a deep history with BP and its various North American operations.

Return to Business As Usual ASAP!

What the rally and the push to end the moratorium are about is an attempt by the oil field service industry and the political leaders dependent upon them for campaign financing to get back to business as usual in the Gulf of Mexico just as quickly as possible. Interestingly, organizers did not meet their goal of getting 15,000 people to attend. Some local television stations were predicting 20,000 attendees with spillover being shuffled into the Cajundome Convention Center next door. Didn't happen.

That means getting back to destroying Louisiana's coast at the alarming, but less conspicuous rate of a football field every 38 minutes. The people who are making the push are careful to preface their call with the obligatory nods of acknowledgment to the 11 workers lost in the original explosion on the Deepwater Horizon and the damage all of the resulting gushed oil is causing to the coast, to fisheries, to fishing families, etc.

But, really, what the push is about is saying that their right to wreck the Gulf and our coast trumps the interests of all others. Nothing is more sacred than their right to make money off what is essentially a colonial extractive operation where workers are expendable and the comparable pittance in royalty money and taxes directed to property owners and the state is part of the cost of making people in other parts of the world wealthy.

Oil and natural gas are essential parts of our economy. But, the BP Gulf Gusher is a defining moment that demands that we change the way we live — the way we power our homes, our vehicles, and our way of life. There is no such thing as cheap oil any more. What happened to BP can happen to other companies drilling in such deep water where margins for error are so tight and unforgiving.

The Rally for Economic Survival at the Cajundome was the last gasp of an old order trying with all its might — by hook or by crook; with conflated facts and distorted data — to cling to an era that has ended. The world will never be the same as it was before the explosion on the Deepwater Horizon.

What has happened since then in terms of economic and ecological damage proves that we cannot — as a state, as a nation, as people who believe we are bound to be responsible stewards of our state and our environment — allow anything approaching a return to business as usual.

As was just demonstrated by the killing of climate control legislation at the federal level, the energy industry will fight policy changes fiercely. But, we can be stronger. Whatever policy they can buy or block in Washington and Baton Rouge, we can circumvent by making changes in our own lives. Getting solar panels. Reducing energy consumption. Getting more efficient vehicles. Riding bikes. Pushing for high-speed rail.

Change has arrived in Louisiana and that the BP Gulf Gusher brought it. The politicians don't get it yet.

But, that's the way it always is.